Western States preview 2026: Andy Jones-Wilkins breaks down the most competitive fields in race history

By Henry Howard

Andy Jones-Wilkins is settling into his new community of Corvallis, Ore., but his mind and energies are focused on Western States as it gets closer to North America’s premier 100-mile race.

His wife, Shelly, became the director of scholarship fundraising at Oregon State University so they moved earlier this year. And, of course, Jones-Wilkins has been exploring the trails.

“The trails up here are great,” he says. “Megan Canfield lives up here. She’s a 13-time Western states finisher and Ken Ward is a 10-time Western states finisher. Andrew Miller, he has a cougar on his mantle. I think the crown jewel of the area right close to here is McDonald Forest, which is a research forest that OSU manages and there’s 100 miles of gravel roads and another 50 miles of trails up there.”

Jones-Wilkins, a 10-time Western States finisher who placed in the top 10 seven times, is the top ambassador for the nation’s first 100-mile race. We talked last week after the Memorial Weekend Training Camp, which provided a glimpse not only of the athletes who will be competing but the course itself.

“Similar to the last couple of years, there’s no snow on the course,” he noted. “It’ll be a dry course. There’ll be a little water and meltoff in the very high country, but it looks like it’s going to be a dry course. There’s always a fire danger when it’s been a dry winter, but we’re hoping for the best there. It’s going to be a good old fashioned pure Western States.”

In our interview we analyze both the men’s and women’s fields, explore some interesting topics related to the impact of Cocodona and cover some other interesting story lines. This Q&A for our annual Western States preview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

AJW’s Western States preview: women’s race

Question: Let’s start out on the women’s side, nine of the top 10 return from last year plus Tara Dower, Anne Flower, Jennifer Lichter and some others. What do you make of this competition and who do you see emerging at the front of the pack?

Answer: With both the men’s and the women’s races, I divided them into veterans, new veterans and  what I call “new veterans” – people who have one finish, rookies. And then I have a special category called rookies with an asterisk.

• The veterans, Fuzhao Xiang, Abby Hall, Emily Hawgood, Marianne Hogan, Keeley Henninger. You take those five, they’re all in the race. They’ve all had previous top 10s. They’ve all finished the race at least twice in Emily Hawgood’s case five times. They’re going to be in mix. Of that group, I think Abby Hall is maybe poised to be the first repeat women’s winner in a long, long time. I think she above maybe many others really benefited from knowing that she was in the race. She didn’t have to do a golden ticket. She didn’t have to do anything. 365 days ago, she knew she was in the race. So I think Abby and Fuzhao Xiang, I think the two of them are the sort of cream of that veterans crop.

• In the new veterans, you’ve got Fiona Pascal, Hannah Allgood, Hau Ha and Yngvild Kaspersen. And I’ve got to go with Hannah Allgood in that group. I’ve been around the race a long time and runners who have a really strong debut between third and sixth and then make it through their training unscathed are set up nicely. She has the whole package, training, experience, she’s tall. I think it just plays into her strengths.

• And the rookies, you mentioned a couple of them, Jen Lichter, Molly Seidel, Anne Flower and Holly Ranson from Australia. You’ve got Molly Seidel, bronze medalist in the Olympics. Jen Lichter —this will be her 100-mile debut, but man, she’s just been tearing it up. Anne Flower beat Ann Trason’s course record at Leadville that stood since 1994. So all of them are in the mix.

• My rookies with an asterisk starts with Tara Dower because she dropped out last year. She was sick. She’s really fit right now. She’s back. She ran an incredible race at Javelina to get her qualifier. So somewhere among Fuzhao, Abby, Hannah, Jen, Molly, Anne and Tara, I think is where you’re going to get your top five from.

Question: This is a more broad question, not necessarily Western States specific, especially this year, because you’ll see where I’m going. Obviously Courtney Dauwalter is not in the race, but she’s still among the top women ultra runners. Tara, who is in the race, Rachel Entrekin, who just won Cocodona overall, and Katie Schide who is injured and not running. Those are four who I could see making an argument now as the best active woman ultra runner other than Katie, at least temporarily. So who would you put at the top of that list?

Answer: It’s interesting because of the Rachel Entrekin phenomenon of not only winning Cocodona, but winning it outright. She is now able to train full-time since she’s a professionally sponsored athlete. I think it makes it an interesting debate. I think Courtney’s 41 now, but I don’t think a person should necessarily say Courtney’s second place to Rachel automatically makes Rachel ahead of her. I think Tara is picking her spots. You’re right. Katie’s injured and she’s out of Hardrock and probably for good reason. I remember when I was doing my Ultra Runner of the Year voting last year, I ranked Rachel much higher than most other people did, but she hadn’t done something as high profile as winning Cocodona. I think if you changed the question to vote on whose stock is going up, staying flat and might be going down. Then I would say the stock is going up on Rachel and Tara, the stock is staying steady on Katie and the stock may be going down on Courtney, but I would never put anything past Courtney.

Question: I like how you broke down the women into those various categories. Any other women just below that surface that you’ll be tracking on race day?

Answer: Definitely Marianne Hogan has been there a bunch of times. She’s super solid. I mentioned Emily Hawgood, Lottie Brinks and Addie Bracy, who was part of Rachel Entrekin’s crew at Cocodona. I think I put them in the mix too. It’s a super, super competitive women’s race this year. We say that every year, but I mean, I think without a clear front runner like Courtney or Katie we’ve had the last couple of years, I think it’s going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

AJW’s Western States preview: men’s race

Question: Let’s go to the men’s side, which may be even more stacked than the women. Kilian, Jim, Hayden. Overall, seven of the top 10 finishers from last year. Hopefully Francisco Puppi will be healthy. It’s quite a lineup. What do you see?

Answer: Again, I’ll just do my same categories.

• At the top of the veterans list, you’re going to have Jim Walmsley, Hayden Hawks and Kilian Jornet. Right there, you could just stop and be like, ‘OK, that’s your podium.’ One of those guys will likely end up on the podium, but you never know. And then I would add to that veteran list Adam Peterman because he’s been training really well.

• In the new veterans category or newish veterans, after a couple of years away, Anthony Costales from Salt Lake; Hans Troyer, a huge fan favorite; Jeff Mogavero, fantastic runner; Daniel Jones from Down Under; Seth Ruling, who kind of goes under the radar all the time. That’s a really strong five right there. So you could take right then and there, you could take those nine, Walmsley, Hawks, Killian, Peterman, Costales, Troyer, Mogavero, Jones and Ruling and you almost have the top 10.

• But then you get to the rookies. We’ll see what happens with Francesco Puppi and his health. David Sinclair, who has incredible foot speed and comes from a skiing background, this is his first 100-mile race. Will Murray, who’s done amazing things in a relatively short career. Jordan Bramblett from Arizona is a really strong runner. I saw he did an incredible run in the Canyon the other day that was just amazing.

• My rookies with an asterisk include my male version of Tara Dower, Zach Miller. Zach Miller has an incredible resume for whatever reason. He’s never been to Western States. He’s been there as a pacer a bunch of times, been there to hang out, but now he’s running it. By the way, what two incredible stories are right there? Tara Dower and Zach Miller have not finished the race, but they’re in it this year. So I would say that this, in my experience both as running the race and spectating, that’s the most competitive men’s field, at least right now that I’ve ever seen. I think the women’s field is close, but as you mentioned, the absence of such luminaries is Courtney, Katie, Rachel, it’s got to figure into that where you can’t think of a high level male runner who’s not in the race this year, except for maybe Caleb Olson who won last year.

Question: As you were going through all those names, I was also thinking we could get maybe four other analysts, commentators, whatever, fans of the sport and do a draft for our podiums. So if there’s six of us that’s 18 and each of us could probably leave the table really happy about who we end up picking if we just went round robin, picked one at a time. It feels like it’s just that deep.

Answer: Oh, that would actually be really fun to do, have a snake style draft. “Oh, Walmsley’s taken. Oh, Killian’s taken. Mogavero is still there and Sinclair’s still there. Zach Miller is still there. Oh, that’d be fun.

Question: Who are some men just below that previous tier who you will be tracking closely?

Answer: I think that we’re going to see this year maybe more than ever a little bit of a potential for people who have been around a long time to maybe have their opportunity. I’m thinking of Ryan Montgomery, for example. He has three finishes and is certainly going to be kind of under the radar going into this year’s race. I think other Golden Ticket recipients, like you mentioned, Jeshrun Small from Colorado, Canyon Woodward from North Carolina, and Jordan Bramblett. Going back to include the top runners, I had Walmsley, Hawks, Kilian, Peterman, Costales, Troyer, Mogavero, Jones, Ruhling, Sinclair, Puppi, Murray, Bramblett, Woodward, Montgomery. And then Zach Miller.

AJW’s Western States 2026 predictions: the top 10

Question: That’s a great list. Who do you have the top 10?

Answer: It’s crazy to bet against Jim Wamsley. So I’d have to say Jim is my number one, though this is the most competitive group of chasers he’ll gone against. But then I’d have to say Kilian, number two. I think he’ll maybe get a surprise with Jeff Mogavero, number three. He had fourth place last year. I’d say Zach Miller, fourth. And by the way, I’m just doing this off the top of my head. You have to have Hayden Hawks. He’s going to be healthy. Oh, Hans Troyer. Then Sinclair in his debut for seventh. And then I do think Will Murray will make it into the top 10. He’ll run smart. Then probably Puppi then Woodward. I think Canyon will come ready to play.

Question: That is a very solid group. Since you did the guys, how about the women?

Answer: Well, I think we’re going to have a repeat winner. I think Abby Hall is going to win again. I think most of all, she’s benefited from the fact that she didn’t have to chase the qualifier, didn’t have to get a Golden Ticket, nothing like that. I think she’s coming in hot. I got some inside info from Jen Lichter’s training camp that she did. I think she’ll be the fastest debut. I do think Tara Dower, she’s so tough. She’s so strong. She’ll probably be third. Anne Flower, can’t believe I put her so low but this is a competitive group. Then Fuzhao Xiang — I know she’s finished higher than this the last couple of years — in fifth. Hannah Allgood. I know Hannah’s fit also. And then it’d be hard to bet against a bronze medal Olympian for Molly Seidel. And again, she might get a lot of education in this one and then next year crush it. We’ll have to see.

And then the veterans that always seem to be around. I think I’d go with Emily Hawgood. This would probably be her fifth or sixth top 10; she is so strong. Marianne Hogan, I know that I ran with Megan Canfield yesterday and she ran into Marianne down at Memorial Day, so she was really fit and ready to go. So that gets me to nine. And then the 10th place runner, that’s a tough call, but I think I’ll go with Yngvild Kaspersen.

AJW’s Western States 2026 preview: course record, impact of Cocodona and using poles

Question: That’s a great top 10. We talked about both the men’s and women’s races and how they’re so highly competitive, which means that they’re going to be pushing each other, right? Plus the course conditions could be a factor in fast times. Are we going to see one or both course records go down?

Answer: I think the men’s course record could go down. I think Caleb Olson was very close last year, wasn’t really pushed past after the river. It was only two minutes off 14:09. So I think the men’s course record has a better chance of going down than the women’s course record.

However, when Katie came back and was within 16 minutes of Courtney’s when Courtney did 15:29 and broke the record by like 84 minutes, I thought, “Oh, that’s going to be a record forever. That’s going to be like Matt Carpenter.” And here it is just a few years later and it’s not. So I think the chances are better that a men’s course record goes down, but that’s not to say there’s not a chance. And Anne Flower would be one, she’s not afraid to just take it out hard and see how it goes. Same with Tara Dower, but it would take, first of all, not a very hot day because the trail’s going to be great. There’s no snow. It’s in good condition. The trail crew’s been out already taking down the trees and all that stuff that they do. So that’d be my gut. Men’s has a little bit better chance than women, but they both could go down.

Question: We’ve seen a rise in the interest of Cocodona, which has attracted some top athletes and will likely lure more in the future, potentially drawing some top runners away from Western. Obviously, you love both races. Because of the length of Cocodona, but also the proximity on the calendar to Western States, I could also see where it might be something where some elite top runners might want to see what they can do at Cocodona. As race fans, can we have our cake and eat it too, or is the emergence and the fandom around Cocodona going to have any impact on Western states in years to come?

Answer: Yeah, Henry, that’s a really exciting and interesting question. In a typical elite level Western States buildup, you would be running some of your highest intensity and highest volume training on the exact same week that Cocodona is every year. The first week in May is typically when those sort of final tuneup races are, like the Miwok 100K and Canyons 100K is the weekend before. For a truly elite performer to do really, really well at both, I don’t know, that would be a big, big ask.

Zooming out even more, before the emergence of Cocodona, the big three of elite 100-milers were Western States, Hardrock, UTMB. And we’ve known that Western States and Hard Rock are usually close enough together that it’s hard for anybody to do both or even do well at both. But the Western States UTMB double has become kind of a thing to do.

While it might be a big ask for someone to do Cocodona-Western, a Cocodona-UTMB double is doable.

So you take somebody like Rachel, maybe she recovers, she spends the rest of the month of May and into June recovering. Then she travels over to Europe and spends the summer in Europe and trains for UTMB. I could definitely see that happening. So for better or for worse, Cocadona now has a spot in my opinion on the Mount Rushmore of global ultras along with Western States, Hardrock and UTMB.

So to your “cake and eat it too” question, Western States will always have sort of a special place in the pantheon of the sport. But with Cocodona’s 200 plus mile distance and the exposure from the livestream, there’s just so many eyeballs on it. And the phenomenon this year has just been amazing that it’s just transcended. It’s gone into mainstream media with ESPN and network news. Its place on the calendar is not going to change. I think your point about having the cake and eating it too, it’s just kind of what we’re going to see. But fortunately, the depth and breadth of competitive ultra runners is so great right now that there’s plenty of competitive ultra runners to have all four of those races be very competitive.

Question: This has been great, as usual. Is there anything we didn’t talk about that you want to mention?

Answer: I’m glad you asked. This is not necessarily at the front of the pack, but I think one of the really intriguing parts of Western states this year is a rule change. They actually have two rule changes, but the first one won’t really impact. For the first time ever, runners are allowed to use traction devices on their shoes and poles and traction devices won’t be an issue because there’s no snow, but using poles has been forbidden at Western States every year. But this year for the first time they’re allowing polls.

I think everybody knows poles are kind of a thing now that have become part of running, especially for mid to back of the Packers who might be out there for a long, long time. I think it’s going to be great for Western States finishers rates and it’ll be curious to see. I’m looking forward just to following the race and seeing how many runners do use poles, which part of the course they use them on, would they use them through the canyons and then drop them off at Forest Hill, or do they keep them for the whole rest of the race? It’ll be so weird to see runners at Western States with polls, but I think it’ll be great. And it’ll be particularly great for older runners, 60 years and over who just will benefit from that extra support, extra balance, that sort of thing.

Question: As you were talking about that, I was trying to think of some of the elites we’ve talked about who might benefit from having poles. I don’t know if Tara used poles at all on the Appalachian Trail, but she’s the first one who came to mind.

Answer: Yeah, I was thinking Tara definitely because of the AT. And then I was thinking of the international runners. The European scene is very pole heavy. You could see someone like Francisco Puppi pull them out or you could see some of these UTMB folks or maybe even some of the Asian runners. It’ll be interesting to see, but I would not be at all surprised in that sort of Golden Hour crowd that everyone has poles.