12 ultra running storylines to watch in 2026: Western States, Hardrock and Barkley predictions

By Henry Howard

The 2026 ultra running season promises historic showdowns at Western States, a potential three-peat at Hardrock, and the question everyone's asking: will anyone conquer the Barkley Marathons? After an incredible 2025 season, I have compiled 12 storylines that will define trail and ultra running in 2026.

But first, a year ago, I wrote 15 storylines to watch in 2025. Among them were:

• “Will Jim Walmsley be healthy for Western States? The course record holder is slated to return this year with the No. 1 men’s bib and will likely enter as the favorite.” Sadly, an injury prevented Walmsley from running Western, though he had a stellar year and was among my Top 25 Most Inspirational Men Ultra Runners of the Year.

• “How will Lazarus Lake make the Barkley Marathons even more challenging?” After a record five runners completed the 2024 Barkley Marathons, I concluded by writing, “Laz, the mastermind of the unique race, will likely take steps to make the 2025 version even more difficult.” Bingo. No finishers.

Previously I did this post at the start of 2024, this one from 2023 and began the annual series with this one for 2022.

And now, the 12 storylines in trail and ultra running to monitor during 2026:

What’s next in ultra running: Top running storylines to watch in 2026

1.     Will we see a course record at Western States 2026? This year there is probably a little extra incentive as there is expected to be a course change in 2027 due to the completion of a major reroute in the Granite Chief Wilderness area. On the men’s side, potential course record breakers include Kilian Jornet, Jeff Mogavero and Dan Jones, who finished 3-4-5 last year. Francesco Puppi is set to make his 100-mile debut at the race while other Golden Ticket winners include Will Murray and Canyon Woodward. With Golden Ticket races remaining, there is room for more elites like Jim Walmsley, David Roche, Rod Farvard and Hayden Hawks to join the fray. On the women’s side, the entire top 10 from 2025 is set to return, led by the podium of Abby Hall, Fu-Zhao Xiang and Marianne Hogan. In addition to the rest of the top 10, Golden Ticket winners from the Javelina Jundred include Tara Dower and Addie Bracy.

2.     Will we see one or both Roches on the Western States podium? While neither David nor Megan Roche are on the start list for Western States, as of this writing, there are multiple Golden Ticket races left. While David gave it a go in 2025, he has battled an injury after Javelina. Megan, on the other hand, has nailed back to back impressive victories at the Quad Dipsea, and the 50-mile Run Rabbit Run with one of the fastest times ever, 8:21:51. On their podcast, they have hinted at Megan taking a shot at a Golden Ticket, which will be fun to watch.

3.     Will the Hardrock women’s race get more attention than the men’s? For one, I am here for the 2026 Hardrock women’s race. With Katie Schide, Courtney Dauwalter and Tara Dower on the starting line, this is the race ultra fans have been waiting for. It’s early, of course, but my gut says Tara Dower will emerge victorious. 

4.     Will we see a three-peat at Hardrock 2026? Ludovic Pommeret won Hardrock in 2024, then six weeks later took fifth overall at UTMB. Last year, he nearly replicated that exact feat winning Hardrock again and placing sixth at UTMB. Will Pommeret, now 51, win for the third year in a row, becoming the first male to do so since Kilian Jornet in 2014-16? (Three women have won at least three Hardrocks in a row.)

5.     Will we see more crossovers between ultra runners and marathoners? Among notable ultra runners who showed their speed at marathons in 2025 was Courtney Dauwalter. She finished the California International Marathon (CIM) in 2:38:55, just off an Olympic Trials Qualifier and 11 minutes faster than her previous best at the Twin Cities Marathon two months earlier. Christian Allen, who won the Speedgoat 30K in July, is also fast on flat ground. He ran 2:09:57 for third place at CIM. And Riley Brady PR’d at CIM with a 2:41:27. As far as elite marathoners heading over to trails, perhaps this is the year we see Des Linden (who set the 50K record at a Brooks event in 2021 with a 2:59:54) compete at an ultra race.

6.     What new nutrition trend will emerge? The carb revolution began in 2024 and seemed to carry on throughout last year. Hydration seemed to take root as a difference maker for some athletes, using liquid calories to increase carbs or at the very least balance their intake of carbs with a combination of water-based liquids and gels.

7.     Will athletes realize that bicarb is essentially baking soda? While there have been a string of testimonials about how bicarb has been a game-changer for runners, cyclists and others, I’m just not a convert. 

8.     What’s next for live coverage of races? Every year the coverage of live races improves, including races that go well beyond 100 miles. Improved technology, the use of drones and talented commentators have been the catalyst for the live coverage. That innovation will surely continue to evolve, especially with Aravapia mastermind and Ultrarunning Magazine publisher Jamil Coury leading the way.

9.     Will inclusivity and diversity take a step forward? Efforts to diversify the sport are starting to create necessary change. That is in large part due to athletes like nonbinary runner Riley Brady and Ryan Montgomery, as well as race directors like Libby Jones and Jason Green. Through their actions, they have helped make trail and ultra running more inclusive. Still more work needs to be done to fully embrace inclusivity and diversity throughout the sport. 

10.  How will AI impact the sport? The use of Artificial Intelligence, or AI, technology crept into the sport during 2025 as athletes, coaches and others applied it to various tasks. I don’t believe AI is a suitable replacement for a human coach, but there are ways to incorporate it into our running regimens. Just how much of a factor will AI become may be a better way to phrase the question. 

11.  Will the Barkley Marathons win again? In 2025, Lazarus Lake and the brutal spring weather were too much for the Barkley Marathons runners. That was a stark contrast to the previous year when a record five runners — including Jasmin Paris, the first woman to finish the Barkley Marathons — completed the five loops. A year earlier, three men finished — the previous record for most completions in one year. In my humble opinion, it will be a long time before we ever see three or more finishers in one year. Still, there are talented athletes willing to take a shot so it would not be a surprise to see a finisher or two at the Barkley Marathons 2026 or in future years.

12.  Will any long-standing records fall? In recent years, we have seen historic course records fall, most notably perhaps was at the Leadville 100. David Roche topped Matt Carpenter’s longstanding record at Leadville in 2024, then repeated the feat last year. Not to be outdone, Ann Flower surpassed Ann Trason’s 31-year-old record at Leadville in 2025. Among longstanding course records that could be in jeopardy as athletes get faster: 

• Women: Trason, American River 50, 6:09:08 set in 1993; Nikki Kimball, Tahoe Rim Trail 100, 20:18:00, set in 2008; Suzanna Bon, San Diego 100, 19:32:19 set in 2009; and Kami Semick, Vermont 100, 16:42:32 set in 2010.

  
  

• Men: Jim Howard, American River 50, 5:32:18, set in 1981; Eric Clifton, Old Dominion 100, 15:10:00 in 1992; Karl Meltzer, San Diego 100, 15:48:00, set in 2006; and Geoff Roes, Wasatch 100, 18:30:55, set in 2009.

What intriguing storylines are you following or are most interested in? Leave a comment on any of my posts or shoot me an email. And for trail and ultra running news in 2026 and beyond, subscribe to my free Monday Motivation newsletter.