AJW’s crystal ball for the 2025 Western States

By Henry Howard

With Western States on the horizon, Andy Jones-Wilkins was kind to give his time once again for what become an annual tradition, a preview of the race from his expertise. We chatted in early June, not that long after the experienced ultra runner finished his first 200+ mile race.

After finishing the Javelina Jundred last October, AJW says he “felt pretty good and felt like I was still able to do some long, hard efforts.” So he signed up for the Sedona Canyons 125 with his friend, Rob Martin.

Sadly, Martin suffered a couple of heart attacks and passed away.

“After a little bit of soul searching, I decided why just do the 125? I should probably go ahead and do the whole 250,” Jones-Wilkins recalls. “So I got my entry changed from the 125 to the 250. And in honor of Rob, I like to say I ran 125 for me and 125 for Rob, so I did run the Cocodona 250.”

The race met his expectations.

“It was very, very hard,” he says. “I didn't really expect it to be anything else, but the weather was bad in the first couple of days. There was a lot of rain, which we hardly ever get out here. There were some really challenging technical sections and because of my hip surgeries, I don't tend to do very well. I just had to take my time, but it was an incredible experience running 250 miles. It took me almost five days. My family was out crewing me. I had some great pacers. It was a great experience and one I'll not forget. I've also decided it's one that I won't repeat.”

Finishing such a long race was a different experience than any of AJW’s top 10 finishes at Western States.

“The biggest difference is it didn't really ever feel like a race per se,” he explains. “It felt more like being out on a big adventure. All of my Western States, even those last few when I was no longer vying for spots in the top 10, I always thought of it as a race first. It (Cocodona) was almost like a completely different sport and not that I prefer one to the other, but I just felt it felt very different. Now, if you were to ask me, well, which was more satisfying, finishing top 10 at Western States or finishing Cocodona, I'd have to say finishing top 10, not to take anything away from Cocodona. But those memories of finishing so close to the front at Western States, that's the highlight of my running life and it'll probably will always be.”

A look at the Western States favorites

This year’s Western States men’s field is shaping up to be among the most competitive ever, even without four-time champion Jim Walmsley and frequent podium finisher Hayden Hawks on the start line. Rod Farvard, last year’s runner-up, is one of at least 10 men with a legitimate shot at breaking the tape. Among the top runners in the women’s field is Heather Jackson, who I interviewed as part of this ongoing Western States preview. Check it out here.

Now on to AJW’s crystal ball for the 2025 Western States, starting June 28. This question and answer has been edited for clarity and brevity.

Question: What’s the course outlook for this year’s Western States?

Answer: There is still some snow up in the high country, but everybody is anticipating that most of it will be melted by race day, so it'll be a clean course. There may be some patches of snow in those first 20 miles kind of in the shady sections, and there'll certainly be a lot of water. There's a lot of creek crossings and places you need to run through water in those first 20 or so miles. There's still a lot more exposure than there used to be back when I ran it because a lot of those shady areas, like particularly the climb up to Devil's Thumb and up to Michigan Bluff, they're still pretty exposed to the sunshine, so the runners will have to deal with that.

Question: Talk about a major change you see this year.

Answer: There's a rather significant change, which the race is smart to do, in what the crews are allowed to do. At most Western States, the runner's crews were able to meet them down at the bottom of Bath Road and basically run with them for about a mile and a half, and they were also allowed to meet them down at the river crossing and come up to Greengate with their runner. They're no longer allowed to do that. Their crews can still meet their runner about a half a mile from the Forest Hill aid station, but they're not allowed to spend as much time with their runner as they used to with one very important exception. And that's at the end. They can still meet their runner at Robie Point, which is at mile 99.7, and they can run that final part in with them through the streets of Auburn. But I don't think that'll have much of an impact on the race, but it's certainly something that'll make the crew experience a little bit different for people.

Question: Let's start out with the women’s race, where only six of the top 10 from last year return, and of course that means no Katie Schide, and Courtney Dauwalter is also absent. Who do you see as some of the top favorites?

Answer: Fuzhao Xiang, Eszter Csillag, Emily Hawgood, Ida Nillson, Heather Jackson and Priscilla Forgie are the returnees. Of the returning top 10ers, I really like Emily Hawgood. I think Emily has paid her dues on the course. Regardless of the conditions, she's ready to go even though she's from Zimbabwe, she lives in the area, she spends a lot of time on the course. I think this could be her time. I also think in the buildup to this, Riley Brady has had two incredible races down here in Arizona, first at Javelina and then again at Black Canyon, and they are definitely primed for this, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Riley Brady toward the front and then coming off her incredible FKT on the Appalachian Trail, Tara Dower. Tara has not run Western States before, but nailed a golden ticket at Black Canyon as well.

A runner who is a veteran that actually has spent quite a bit of time racing in Europe, but recently back here in the United States up lives up in Flagstaff. Abby Hall, this will be her Western States debut, I believe. Really excited about Abby Hall and someone who's flying a little bit under the radar, but I think is a really, really strong runner is Shea Aquilano. Shea currently lives in Boulder, and I had her on my podcast earlier in the year, and she's very young. I think she's run Black Canyon five times, but I think she's 23 or 24, and she kind of runs with youthful energy, so I would not be surprised if the winner came from one of those five — Emily Riley, Tara, Abby or Shea.

It’s such a long list. I mentioned the returning top 10s, but in terms of Golden Tickets, Hannah Allgood, Marianne Hogan, who's been on the podium at Western States before, Keely Henninger, Erin Clark. So it's like every year it's a full field and I think it's going to be exciting race.

Question: Who would you say would be the top woman to finish among the American women?

Answer: Probably Tara Dower.

Question: And how many American women do you think will end up in the top 10?

Answer: I knew you were going to ask that. Oh, somewhere between four and seven. (Laughs.) I think with Fuzhao Xiang, Eszter Csillag, Priscilla Forgie, the international field is strong. Marianne Hogan is Canadian. I think it's a good year for the Americans if they get five of the top 10.

Question: One runner I'm interested in to see how she performs, who we haven't talked about yet, is Lin Chen. She has done well at Western before. What I think is unique about her this year is she just won the Canyons 100-miler not that long ago. How do you think that's going to work out for her as she attempts Western here in another few weeks?

Answer: Yeah, those are close together. However, she is a little bit older (34), and maybe can withstand two 100s that close together. That gave her an ample opportunity to get to know a huge section of what she's going to be running on later this month. I think she's got a shot, but time will tell.

Question: Let's segue over to the men. This was billed as the most stacked men's field ever, and unfortunately we've lost a couple of the perennial favorites, Jim Walmsley and Hayden Hawks. Of course, it's still a highly competitive field, but where do you think it ranks now in terms of the most competitive field ever?

Answer: I think instead of it being the most competitive Western States, which I think it would have been, if Jim and Hayden were still on the start line. And Jon Rea just withdrew as well. He's a little further down the depth chart, but nonetheless, I think it moves down from unquestionably the most competitive Western States ever to one of the most competitive Western States ever. I think it could easily be 10 guys who could win it this year. There are some favorites, but it could be anybody's race. It will still be a barn burner and in many ways might be even a little bit more entertaining.

Question: So what does your crystal ball say? Who is going to emerge at the top of the men's field?

Answer: We have four returning top 10s, Rod Farvard, Daniel Jones, Caleb Olson and Chris Myers. You cannot ignore Rod Farvard, right? If you watched the race last year he ran stride for stride with Jim Walmsley. He was in the lead at almost the midpoint in the race. He took the lead out of Michigan Bluff. He's not afraid. He's got the experience. I'm kind of old school in that if the previous year's first place guy isn't there and the second place guy is, you really can't ignore him. I wouldn't ignore Rod, but frankly, neither would I ignore Daniel Jones. I mean, Daniel Jones ran a really, really good race, had incredible training all through the winter, a lot of training with Hayden Hawks down in New Zealand before Hayden got hurt. Caleb Olson, a Salt Lake City guy, incredible runner, still on the way up. They are all going to be in the hunt.

Then there are two past champions in the race, which doesn't happen. Actually, there's three because Jim Howard is running as well. But two previous champions in the race, Kilian Jornet, the winner of 2011 race, and Adam Peterman who won back in 2023. Adam Peterman had an incredible run at Gorge Waterfalls, while Kilian Jornet is Kilian Jornet. He had an OK run at the Chianti Ultra Trail 120K by UTMB, where he finished behind Jim Walmsley, admittedly was sort of not in his shape. And then this incredible story of David Roche who has always been a good runner. He's a great personality, a wonderful contributor to the sport, and he really entered the scene as an incredible 100-mile runner with his course record at Leadville, and then backed it up with an almost course record and commanding win at Javelina.

Of those not from last year’s top 10, David Roche, Adam Peterman and Kilian Jornet. They could be the podium right there with none of last year's top 10ers being in that top three. I was also really impressed with Seth Ruling’s run at Black Canyon with Jeff Mogavero’s run at Javelina, where he finished behind David Roche, but ran incredibly well. And Dan Green, who's just gotten in off the wait list after winning Cocodona. He's a West Virginia guy, and then you've got Vincent Bouillard, the winner of UTMB. It’s super deep, but I think if I were to have to narrow down sort of like I did with the women, it would be these three, the two defending Champs, Kilian and Adam, plus David Roche, and then Rod Farvard and Daniel Jones.

Question: Do you anticipate the course record falling in either race?

Answer: I don't think it will fall in the women's race, unless Tara Dower and Riley Brady are on a real burner. And 15:29 is just an incredible time that Courtney ran two years ago, and Katie came amazingly close to it last year. But I think the women's course record is safe. On the other hand, I think the men's course record of 14:09 could be had this year. A lot will depend on how hot it is, as is always the case. I mean, Rod Farvard knows how to run, what, a 1422? We'll see. And David Roche broke a Matt Carpenter record at Leadville and was well under 13 hours at Javelina. So we have some guys who know how to run fast and who knows, Kilian never surprises me. So he could be doing speed training and hill repeats and everything else and come over here and just bust out a sub-14 as well.

Question: Awesome. We've talked a lot about those who have a real good chance of finishing in the top 10. Who are some of the runners outside of most people's projected top 10, who you could see as having a real good shot at finishing the top 10 and might be a surprise?

Answer: Well, I have to start with Jeff Browning. Jeff Browning has finished as high as third in the race and is returning to Western States. He's 53 years old. He's returning with the goal of breaking the 50-plus-year-old record held by Steven Moore. He got that a couple years ago, but Jeff could easily sneak into the top 10 from behind. He could be in 20something place and sneak into the top 10, particularly if it ends up being a hot day. So I would keep my eye out for him. I don't know how many people are going to have Hans Troyer on their list. Hans just got a Golden Ticket at Canyons and has had some health issues, but I think he could definitely surprise some people and make himself a top tenor.

This is probably dodging the question, but the women's field is highly competitive. I don't think there's any surprises lurking out there. I think because it's a smaller field, because we know most of the cast of characters in my list of 20, that probably covers the top 10. Now, I might regret saying this in a month, but I really, I see the likelihood of a surprise top tenor much more likely out of the men's race than out of the women's race.

Question: This has been great, as usual. Is there anything we didn't talk about that you want to mention?

Answer: This is the most exciting time of the year for me and for a lot of people who follow North American trail and ultra running. I think Western States, even with a couple of the top guys who aren't going to be there, it's still the Super Bowl of ultra running. I'll be smiling ear to ear the entire weekend. I always like to tell people I'm kind of doing my usual routine. I do parking at Duncan Canyon, which is the Mile 24 aid station, the first crew access spot. So it's an important area to make sure all the crews are parking safely and not blocking the road and everything. So I go up there the night before and camp out with a couple of the other volunteers, and then we park cars until about noon, and then I will go down to Michigan Bluff and I'll spend the rest of the afternoon helping runners at Michigan Bluff.

I'll stay there right until the cutoff. That's a somewhat dramatic cutoff usually because it's right at the top of a big long climb. And then I'll go down to Highway 49 crossing where there no longer is an aid station there, but there's a small group of people who are there to help runners get across the street safely and to just cheer them on in the dark of night. And so I'll go down there and then I'll go to the finish line and announce in the announcer's booth for a few hours while John Medinger takes a short nap. And then I'll just stay at the finish line and cheer in the finishers and enjoy the golden hour. So I've done that routine now, probably the last five, six years, and I just love it. I can't wait for another weekend at Western States.